Portion of quarters won by the game winner

Another data element collected is quarter scores. These are not always available and do not always add up to the total score. When the scores do not add up these have not been included in this analysis. The following table lists the portion of quarters won by the ultimate winner of the game. The first quarter is the most likely quarter for the game winner to win. The fourth quarter is the least likely quarter for the game winner to win. Due to ties the losing team can not be inferred to win quarters the winning team does not win. Later years have more data. Years with little or no data are not included in this table, except within the aggregate.

SeasonGirlsBoys
Q1Q2Q3Q4 Q1Q2Q3Q4
Whole set80.0%77.6%77.8%71.5% 75.7%73.6%73.6%69.1%
1989-199075.6%75.2%77.1%70.4%
1990-199174.0%77.0%73.2%70.4%
1991-199278.9%75.9%75.5%71.6%
1992-199377.1%73.9%75.1%72.6%
1993-199475.0%76.9%76.3%72.0%
1994-199579.5%75.2%76.9%74.1%
1995-199676.9%79.1%77.7%72.8%
1996-199781.8%75.5%78.0%71.6%
1997-199879.2%77.4%78.7%71.6%
1998-199981.4%78.3%77.2%73.7%
1999-200080.5%77.7%77.7%71.8%
2000-200178.3%77.5%78.1%72.8%
2001-200279.8%77.4%77.7%73.3%
2002-200378.4%77.8%77.3%71.6% 76.1%70.4%71.1%68.8%
2003-200479.8%77.0%77.6%71.5% 75.1%72.2%70.9%71.3%
2004-200578.7%77.8%76.5%70.3% 73.9%73.6%72.7%69.4%
2005-200679.8%76.8%77.4%69.2%
2006-200778.9%75.9%77.0%71.3% 75.6%73.5%72.5%69.4%
2007-200879.3%74.5%77.1%70.0% 73.8%71.6%74.6%68.6%
2008-200977.8%76.2%75.5%71.3% 73.1%72.2%72.9%68.9%
2009-201078.1%76.9%76.9%70.3% 75.2%73.9%73.6%67.3%
2010-201180.9%77.6%76.6%73.2% 74.9%73.9%73.6%69.9%
2011-201281.5%78.2%79.2%71.0% 75.3%73.8%74.4%68.9%
2012-201380.2%78.5%78.2%72.0% 76.0%74.3%73.8%69.3%
2013-201482.9%79.5%79.6%71.9% 76.2%75.7%74.3%70.5%
2014-201581.9%79.0%79.2%72.2% 77.2%74.2%74.7%68.4%
2015-201681.5%79.9%79.9%71.8% 76.8%74.5%74.0%68.7%
2016-201781.8%78.6%79.2%70.2% 76.9%74.1%75.9%68.4%

OK. That is interesting (if you're still reading at this point you might think so too), but what about specific quarter scores? How do these relate to chance of winning the game?

Below are tables showing the quarter scores with color representation of probability of winning the game for a given quarter score. The tables show one team score vertically, the other horizontally. The two teams are interchangeable which means the tables are symmetric about the x=y line. A blue square means the team with the 'blue' score (shown on the y-axis) has high probability of winning the game. A red square means the team with the 'red' score (shown on the x-axis) has high probability of winning the game. Gradations between red and blue mean an intermediate probability. One can hover over a cell and get the score (given as x-y or red-blue) and the wins for red and wins for blue (or wins and losses for red). Also the number of games with that score observed for the quarter. Due to symmetry, score 8-15, that is red 8 and blue 15, is also shown as 15-8 (red 15, blue 8) with the won-lost counts flipped as the score. So it doesn't matter if you look up 8-15 or 15-8, the actual data will be the same.

The following summarizes the probability of winning the game given the quarter scores for girls and boys games. The data comes from all the games with valid quarter scores through the 2016-2017 season. And yes, in the first quarter for girls, 19-0, isn't quite as red as you might imagine. January 25, 2011, West Valley (Yakima) led Davis 19-0 after the first quarter, but lost the game 35-38. But overall, falling that far back isn't a recommended strategy.

The quarters generally have a blue to red smear going from upper left to lower right. Colors are more scattered when both teams have high scores or both teams have low scores, since there aren't a lot of these games. Also note that for the fourth quater the scattered colors are more prevalant. This agrees with the earlier table showing that losing team's best quarter is the fourth.

A few quarter scores exceed 40 points. These have been collapsed into the 40 point cells.

Girls Quarter 1 P(W)
40
39
38
37
36
35
34
33
32
31
30
29
28
27
26
25
24
23
22
21
20
19
18
17
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
012345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031323334353637383940
Boys Quarter 1 P(W)
40
39
38
37
36
35
34
33
32
31
30
29
28
27
26
25
24
23
22
21
20
19
18
17
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
012345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031323334353637383940
Girls Quarter 2 P(W)
40
39
38
37
36
35
34
33
32
31
30
29
28
27
26
25
24
23
22
21
20
19
18
17
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
012345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031323334353637383940
Boys Quarter 2 P(W)
40
39
38
37
36
35
34
33
32
31
30
29
28
27
26
25
24
23
22
21
20
19
18
17
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
012345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031323334353637383940
Girls Quarter 3 P(W)
40
39
38
37
36
35
34
33
32
31
30
29
28
27
26
25
24
23
22
21
20
19
18
17
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
012345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031323334353637383940
Boys Quarter 3 P(W)
40
39
38
37
36
35
34
33
32
31
30
29
28
27
26
25