Comparison of Ranks Prior to 2016 State Regional Round

This page shows the rankings from various sources of the state qualified teams prior to the regional round of the state tournaments. TB is the teambrunnhilde.com points ranking (the one I like best). The full points rating calculated February 23 is here for girls and boys. SC is the ScoreCzar ranking taken from the ScoreCzar site on February 22. MP is the MaxPreps ranking taken from the MaxPreps site February 22. AP is the Associated Press last poll released February 8, so it is kind of stale. Since AP only ranks 10 teams, with others included in this ranking if they received votes, not every team will have an AP ranking (indicated by NR). MaxPreps also has some database mistakes that result in no MaxPreps ranking for Central Valley and Cascade (Everett) boys teams. MaxPreps also has several teams in incorrect classifications. I have corrected these in the MaxPreps rankings. RPI is the teambrunnhilde.com calculated RPI.

TB and SC ranks are based on points scored and allowed. They are for the entire season. RPI is based on wins and losses for the entire season. For TB, SC, and RPI there is no "what have you done for me lately" component of the ranking. AP is based on opinions of a few individuals that cover high school sports for local newspapers. Some of the AP voters may have actually seen a few of the teams they are voting for. MP has a national database. However, there are structural errors in that database, as well as the usual complement of wrong scores. It's still pretty good, but pretty good isn't really good. The MaxPreps rating uses wins and losses with greater weighting for playoff games. So there is some form of recent performance adjustment. It is unknown if scores (other than win/loss) affect the rating.

Rankings are those for the team within the entire set of teams for a classification. They are not 1 to 16 for the 16 state qualifiers. This results in some holes in the rankings. These may be due to upsets at district tournaments, but more often reflect the uneven spread of good teams between the districts. It may also reflect district bracketing that pitted good teams against eachother at an early state of the tournaments.

Applying the pre-tournament rankings to tournament games yields comparisons between the ranking methods. The results are at the bottom of this page.

Tables are sortable, just click on the column header to sort.

Girls 1B Ranks

SchoolTBSCMPAPRPI
Colton11111Champion
Sunnyside Christian22222
Touchet37373
Republic43445
Almira/Coulee-Hartline55556
Entiat101115NR19
Evergreen Lutheran136768
Mount Vernon Christian14913NR7
Lyle/Wishram152514NR22
Selkirk1714201017
Neah Bay191017823
Tulalip Heritage204634
Taholah231326NR25
Mount Rainier Lutheran2921221215
Seattle Lutheran302029NR28
Mary M. Knight333025NR11

Girls 2B Ranks

SchoolTBSCMPAPRPI
Okanogan11211Champion
Toutle Lake22153
Napavine33436
Mabton45342
Ilwaco56624
Adna68111212
Wahkiakum71381414
St. George's810585
Colfax9117159
Waterville1099108
Raymond1112151311
Lind-Ritzville/Sprague1216101110
Davenport131513915
Dayton161412NR16
Friday Harbor1771477
Tonasket354342NR32

Girls 1A Ranks

SchoolTBSCMPAPRPI
Lynden Christian11111Champion
King's22437
Cashmere359NR10
Zillah57563
Granger68252
La Center73874
Montesano8414312
Columbia (Burbank)91010NR13
Kalama111211106
Lakeside (Nine Mile Falls)13186128
Nooksack Valley151312NR15
Bellevue Christian189785
Charles Wright231420NR14
Chewelah274022NR24
Coupeville282323NR21
Seattle Academy2919171311

Girls 2A Ranks

SchoolTBSCMPAPRPI
East Valley (Spokane)14111
Clarkston21317118
Ellensburg43444
Shorecrest6147NR9Champion
Lynden78232
Anacortes810695
White River911057
Black Hills102583
Washougal169121314
Liberty (Issaquah)173314NR20
Toppenish183028NR30
North Kitsap212822NR17
Mark Morris2622181415
Franklin Pierce301221NR22
River Ridge321731NR25
Port Angeles3323151012

Girls 3A Ranks

SchoolTBSCMPAPRPI
Bellevue12121Champion
Lynnwood21212
West Seattle357410
Bishop Blanchet44564
Arlington56335
Mercer Island610483
Prairie73996
Edmonds-Woodway111513NR14
Wilson129161011
Auburn Riverside148858
Kamiakin152125NR26
Lincoln1671067
Rainier Beach171218NR15
Mount Spokane182326NR32
Auburn Mountainview252019NR17
Columbia River352823NR21

Girls 4A Ranks

SchoolTBSCMPAPRPI
Central Valley12313Champion
Lewis and Clark2613511
Beamer31744
Bothell45137
Moses Lake53226
Chiawana613669
Eastlake9199NR14
Snohomish10104105
Skyview114572
Bellarmine Prep188181210
Kentlake2071191
Sunnyside222027NR24
Curtis24919NR12
Kamiak252625NR33
Gig Harbor291626NR15
Rogers (Puyallup)382336NR34

Boys 1B Ranks

SchoolTBSCMPAPRPI
Almira/Coulee-Hartline11212
Seattle Lutheran22321
Garfield-Palouse35134
Sunnyside Christian464116
Neah Bay57645Champion
Shorewood Christian64553
Yakama Tribal712111311
Liberty Christian8137NR7
Wellpinit981078
Evergreen Lutheran101112119
Entiat131014NR19
Lummi Nation149161014
Riverside Christian151420NR20
Taholah271527NR24
Naselle363033NR41
Columbia Adventist413121NR22

Boys 2B Ranks

SchoolTBSCMPAPRPI
Brewster11313
Northwest Christian (Colbert)22231Champion
Morton-White Pass33122
Life Christian44444
St. George's68131113
Asotin7116NR6
Friday Harbor8519919
Lind-Ritzville/Sprague9915NR15
Napavine1117101210
Warden1213777
Mabton141612NR12
Lake Roosevelt1515171217
Ocosta161011511
Mossyrock19218168
Adna212516NR16
DeSales242221NR21

Boys 1A Ranks

SchoolTBSCMPAPRPI
Zillah11122
King's22333Champion
Lynden Christian33211
King's Way Christian54844
Freeman66455
Seattle Academy886117
Vashon Island9915718
Cascade Christian (Puyallup)121521NR16
Medical Lake1313131214
La Salle14197NR6
Cashmere152011NR15
Kalama161220NR19
Naches Valley172518NR20
Connell18239NR11
Hoquiam211616913
Seattle Christian312725NR27

Boys 2A Ranks

SchoolTBSCMPAPRPI
River Ridge11515
Clarkston22132Champion
Selah34264
Lynden43321
Squalicum66746
Wapato7146107
Shorecrest888138
Tumwater10713129
Liberty (Issaquah)111014NR21
Ellensburg131711NR16
North Kitsap14916912
Lindbergh151817NR23
Steilacoom181315NR15
Renton212623NR26
Mark Morris231210711
Woodland311528NR17

Boys 3A Ranks

SchoolTBSCMPAPRPI
Garfield11111
Rainier Beach22435Champion
Bellevue35322
Auburn Mountainview43243
O'Dea510101412
Peninsula67554
Cleveland712686
Edmonds-Woodway99777
Kamiakin104251325
Lincoln1511868
Shadle Park1618241024
Wilson192011811
Stanwood211426NR26
Mountlake Terrace242314NR14
Kennedy Catholic252929NR29
Enumclaw303118NR18

Boys 4A Ranks

SchoolTBSCMPAPRPI
Federal Way11111Champion
Curtis22322
Gonzaga Prep34525
Central Valley46NR810
Bellarmine Prep67273
Kentwood796104
Union83747
Lewis and Clark91313911
Issaquah108469
Wenatchee121010NR13
Woodinville1315121415
Davis141414NR14
Timberline151911NR17
Kentridge172219NR20
Cascade (Everett)2420NR56
Kamiak292920NR12

Each tournament has 19 games, for a total of 228 state tournament games. Ninety-six games were played on February 26 and 27, 48 boys and 48 girls games. Then 48 games on Thursday March 3, 48 games on Friday March 4, and 36 games on Saturday March 5.

MaxPreps had four games with no prediction (due to errors in their database), and AP had eleven with no prediction, since the AP poll is not designed to rate every team, with one game involving teams tied in the final poll.

The ranking methods were unanamous (for all rankers predicting that game) in predicting 83 boys games and 76 girls games. Of these, 17 boys games were predicted wrong and 12 girls games were predicted wrong. Is that a lot? Isn't it nice when some of the games don't go by the book? So every ranking method had these games wrong (except for games not predicted).

The Final Ranker's Standings

Ranking SourceBoys RecordGirls RecordAll Games
TeamBrunnhilde86-2890-24176-52 77.2%
Associated Press79-31 (4)81-26 (7)160-57 (11) 73.7%
RPI83-3183-31166-62 72.8%
ScoreCzar83-3180-34163-65 71.5%
MaxPreps75-35 (4)85-29160-64 (4) 71.4%

In contentious games, the 69 games where the ranking methods disagreed, TeamBrunnhilde was 47-22, RPI 37-32, AP 33-30, MaxPreps 34-34, ScoreCzar was 34-35. When a ranking method was alone in selecting a team to win a game, TeamBrunnhilde was 6-3, ScoreCzar was 3-5, MaxPreps was 1-4, RPI was 1-5, and AP was 0-3.

Last season TeamBrunnhilde picked nine of the twelve champions. Nobody was close to that this year. Maybe last year the chalk held. Or maybe it was just luck. This year TeamBrunnhilde picked six champions, RPI also had six, AP and MaxPreps had five, and ScoreCzar correctly picked four champions. Here is the spreadsheet listing each game and predictions.

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