Comparison of Ranks Prior to 2019 State Regional Round

This page shows the rankings from various sources of the state qualified teams prior to the regional round of the state tournaments.

WRPI is the official WIAA RPI used for seeding. TBRPI is an RPI calculated by me. Different from WRPI in that it doesn't use OOWP. There are also differences in what games are in scope and the games in the database (a few, not many). WL is just won-lost percentage. CapWL is captured wins and losses. LMpts is the teambrunnhilde.com points ranking: three time defending ranking champion. LMwl is similar to LMpts, except that the dependent variable for the linear model is 1 rather than the margin. So it just looks at wins and losses with the linear model rather than margin of the games. LMwl uses the same X matrix as LMpts. It is not an optimal technique for binary data, but yields a reasonable result. MP is the MaxPreps ranking taken from the MaxPreps site February 19. EV is the Evans Rankings calculated February 18. Comp is a composite of the above ratings: an average of the other rankings for a team and then list those 1-16. Calculated a bit differently than last year. All other rankings are the rank over the entire set of teams within a classification.

LMpts is based on margin. LMwl, RPI, WL, and CapWL are based on wins and losses. They are for the entire season. There is no "what have you done for me lately" component of the ranking. Evans Ranking, revised this season, uses WL, OWL, and also some point data. The MaxPreps rating uses wins and losses with greater weighting for playoff games. So there is some form of recent performance adjustment. It is unknown if scores (other than win/loss) affect the rating.

Rankings (except for the composite) are those for the team within the entire set of teams for a classification. They are not 1 to 16 for the 16 state qualifiers. This results in some holes in the rankings. These may be due to upsets at district tournaments, but more often reflect the uneven spread of good teams between the districts. It may also reflect district bracketing that pitted good teams against eachother at an early state of the tournaments.

Keen observers will note that the WRPI rank does not completely conform to the tournament seedings. WIAA alters seeds 13-16 to avoid regional matchups between teams in the same league.

There are only two consensus champion picks: Lynden (2A boys) and Lynden Christian (1A boys). Last year there were two consensus picks, both correct.

Last season LMpts was best, just under 75% right. MaxPreps and LMwl tied for second. WIAA RPI was much improved from its initial foray. The results for this year will be shown at the bottom of this page following the tournament. It is felt that every other ranking should be able to do better than just Win-Loss.

Tables are sortable, just click on the column header to sort. The native sorting is by Composite.

Girls 4A Ranks

SchoolLMptsLMwlWRPITBRPIWLCapWLMPEVComp
Woodinville 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1
Kentridge 4 5 2 3 1 2 3 1 2
Lewis and Clark 1 2 3 2 5 3 2 4 3
Central Valley 2 3 4 5 5 5 4 5 4
Glacier Peak 10 8 5 4 3 4 7 3 5
Eastlake 5 4 8 611 6 5 9 6Champion
Inglemoor 7 6 7 8 8 8 6 8 7
Bellarmine Prep 1111 6 7 7 710 6 8
Sunnyside 9 9 911 310 8 7 9
Chiawana 8 712131112 91210
Curtis 19151112 811111011
Camas 121013102013121312
Beamer 281310 910 9141113
Rogers (Puyallup) 262117171617201714
Newport (Bellevue)152022212823192415
Hazen 302720201819262116

Girls 3A Ranks

SchoolLMptsLMwlWRPITBRPIWLCapWLMPEVComp
Mount Spokane 1 1 2 2 1 2 1 2 1
Prairie 4 3 1 1 2 1 2 1 2Champion
Garfield 2 4 3 3 2 3 3 3 3
Kamiakin 3 2 4 4 2 4 4 4 4
Seattle Prep 5 8 6 7 6 5 5 6 5
Peninsula 1510 5 5 7 710 7 6
West Seattle 711 911 9 8 7 8 7
Arlington 12 7 810 910 810 8
Bethel 1816 7 9 5 612 5 9
Gig Harbor 81210 615 911 910
Snohomish 11 611 81811 61211
Roosevelt 191814141513131312
Hudson's Bay 341915161115161613
Edmonds-Woodway 131720202520181914
Meadowdale 242121212121192215
Lake Washington 222224222324222416

Girls 2A Ranks

SchoolLMptsLMwlWRPITBRPIWLCapWLMPEVComp
East Valley (Spokane) 1 1 2 1 5 2 1 2 1
Lynden 3 4 1 2 3 1 2 1 2
Clarkston 2 2 3 8 1 7 3 7 3
Archbishop Murphy 6 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 4
Washougal 4 3 7 6 9 6 4 6 5Champion
Port Angeles 1111 6 5 3 4 7 4 6
White River 1715 4 3 2 310 3 7
W.F. West 5 7 8 713 8 8 8 8
Burlington-Edison 8 6 9 910 9 6 9 9
Anacortes 181012101713 91310
Grandvies 191315161015141711
Black Hills 121616151716121612
Foster 22261313 711221113
Sequim 202417171417201414
North Kitsap 212518181718191815
Renton 363927262325292616

Girls 1A Ranks

SchoolLMptsLMwlWRPITBRPIWLCapWLMPEVComp
La Salle 2 2 1 2 1 1 1 1 1Champion
Lynden Christian 3 1 3 3 5 3 2 4 2
Cashmere 1 3 4 4 4 4 3 2 3
Bellevue Christian 13 4 2 1 2 2 4 3 4
Elma 9 8 5 5 3 5 6 5 5
Annie Wright 11 9 6 6 5 6 9 6 6
Meridian 8 5 7 710 7 5 9 6
Freeman 4 611111110 711 8
King's 715 9 8 9 810 7 9
Medical Lake 5 710 91211 81210
Zillah 61112131212121311
Granger 141213121713131512
Connell 121315161214141413
Overlake 24261414 815221014
Montesano 161716152516151615
King's Way Christian 232117181717181716

Girls 2B Ranks

SchoolLMptsLMwlWRPITBRPIWLCapWLMPEVComp
Wahkiakum 3 5 1 1 2 2 2 1 1
Tri-Cities Prep 5 4 2 2 1 1 1 2 2Champion
Davenport 1 1 5 4 8 5 3 5 3
Liberty (Spangle) 2 2 6 6 6 6 4 6 4
La Conner 6 8 3 3 7 4 6 3 5
Ilwaco 9 7 4 5 4 3 8 4 6
Rainier 2511 9 9 4 9 9 9 7
Brewster 13121012 9101212 8
Liberty Bell 1214111011121310 9
St. George's 7 614111815 71810
Willapa Valley 191312131111141111
Auburn Adventist 3127 7 8 3 716 712
Ocosta 221515151514151413
Lake Roosevelt 172320201820241914
Mabton 161922222122222115
South Bend 272621211821202016

Girls 1B Ranks

SchoolLMptsLMwlWRPITBRPIWLCapWLMPEVComp
Colton 1 1 1 1 3 1 1 1 1Champion
Almira Coulee Hartline 4 3 3 4 1 3 3 2 2
Pomeroy 2 2 2 2 5 2 2 6 2
Mount Vernon Christian 9 7 4 3 2 4 4 3 4
Neah Bay 5 6 5 5 3 5 5 5 5
Sunnyside Christian 6 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 6
Concordia Christian 1817 8 8 6 6 9 4 7
Taholah 1616 7 7 8 8 8 9 8
Grace Academy 241810 9101113 8 9
Inchelium 7 918191516121610
Entiat 211912121212141111
Puget Sound Adventist 30221111 910181012
Clallam Bay 172116152418151713
Naselle 252514131915191313
Selkirk 121022222121172715
Riverside Christian 312828262626292616

Boys 4A Ranks

SchoolLMptsLMwlWRPITBRPIWLCapWLMPEVComp
Gonzaga Prep 3 1 2 1 4 2 1 2 1Champion
Union 4 3 1 2 1 1 2 3 2
Federal Way 1 4 3 3 2 3 3 1 3
Mount Si 5 5 4 4 2 4 4 5 4
Richland 2 2 5 5 5 5 5 4 4
Curtis 7 7 8 8 7 6 6 8 6
Jackson 12 9 6 7 6 810 6 7
Battle Ground 151210101610 811 8
Glacier Peak 6151211191212 9 9
Kentridge 18141112 911141210
Puyallup 101613151213111311
Chiawana 111016171116131412
Wenatchee 25171413 814171513
Mount Rainier 262015141815201614
Mariner 222524242124222315
Issaquah 382632323734343316

Boys 3A Ranks

SchoolLMptsLMwlWRPITBRPIWLCapWLMPEVComp
Eastside Catholic 1 3 1 1 2 1 3 1 1
Mount Spokane 3 1 2 2 1 2 1 2 2
Rainier Beach 2 2 3 4 5 5 2 4 3
Kelso 9 4 5 6 3 3 4 5 4
Marysville-Pilchuck 14 6 4 3 4 4 7 3 5
Lincoln 11 7 6 5 5 610 6 6
Ingraham 5 512 91412 513 7
Prairie 1510 8 712 7 9 9 8
West Seattle 6 810121211 612 8
O'Dea 4 913111814 81010Champion
Capital 17191115 51018 811
Wilson 121814101616141612
Arlington 212015161015191413
Shadle Park 191419222322132214
Stanwood 362518181118201815
Shorecrest 352821202221252116

Boys 2A Ranks

SchoolLMptsLMwlWRPITBRPIWLCapWLMPEVComp
Lynden 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1Champion
Columbia River 2 2 2 3 2 3 2 2 2
North Kitsap 11 7 3 2 4 2 6 3 3
Burlington-Edison 6 3 4 5 7 4 5 5 4
Pullman 3 4 5 7 5 8 3 6 5
Clarkston 4 5 6 415 7 4 8 6
Franklin Pierce 818 812 3 617 4 7
Anacortes 9 612 91911 713 8
Selah 1619 710 6101010 9
Fife 171610 810 911 910
Mark Morris 151216141815 91611
Steilacoom 22201413 912161212
Renton 212220201418231713
Liberty (Issaquah) 101422252024202314
Black Hills 282323242223242515
Olympic 272929283030252816

Boys 1A Ranks

SchoolLMptsLMwlWRPITBRPIWLCapWLMPEVComp
Lynden Christian 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
La Center 4 3 2 2 3 2 2 3 2
Zillah 2 8 3 3 2 3 5 2 3Champion
Okanogan 8 5 4 4 8 4 3 5 4
Seattle Academy 10 7 5 5 5 5 8 4 5
Cashmere 9 6 6 611 6 4 7 6
Deer Park 6 4 814 4 8 6 9 7
King's 3 91211 8 910 6 8
Connell 18171010 6101212 9
King's Way Christian 71213 92112111310
Royal 16161112 812141011
Seton Catholic 111415161215151412
Bellevue Christian 191514131914161513
Overlake 221316171517171814
Cascade Christian (Puyallup) 252322222522222415
Naches Valley 302923242123242216

Boys 2B Ranks

SchoolLMptsLMwlWRPITBRPIWLCapWLMPEVComp
Kittitas-Thorp 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1Champion
St. George's 2 1 3 3 2 2 2 2 2
Toledo 6 4 2 2 2 2 3 3 3
Brewster 4 8 5 6 7 5 7 4 4
Lake Roosevelt 7 9 9 8 5 7 8 7 5
Toutle Lake 1110 6 510 6 9 9 6
Life Christian 818 8 9 4 912 6 7
Liberty (Spangle) 5 510102010 511 8
Willapa Valley 1517 7 7 5 715 8 9
Asotin 9 711121612 61310
Oroville 17121415 914161411
Kalama 141317162116131812
Napavine 221918172419172113
Friday Harbor 202620191218241914
White Swan 322229243628203015
La Conner 384026282526362316

Boys 1B Ranks

SchoolLMptsLMwlWRPITBRPIWLCapWLMPEVComp
Sunnyside Christian 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1Champion
Odessa 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
Lummi Nation 10 8 3 3 1 3 4 3 3
Muckleshoot 3 9 5 6 4 5 5 4 4
Yakama Tribal 4 3 6 416 7 3 7 5
Almira Coulee Hartline 6 4 7 7 6 6 9 6 6
Tulalip Heritage 1113 4 5 5 4 8 5 7
Naselle 814 8 8 7 811 8 8
Garfield-Palouse 5 510121611 610 9
Riverside Christian 141113 9 8 912 910
Oakesdale 7 614141213 71311
Neah Bay 132012111414161412
Concordia Christian 172516161916171613
Taholah 193219201419261714
Pateros 231924251823192315
Lopez 383330273429322716

Final Results

RankerRegionalsWednesdayThursdayFridaySaturdayTotal# Champs
LMpts 75-21 32-16 40- 8 33-15 25-11 205-71 74.3%4
MP 72-24 30-18 37-11 36-12 25-11 200-76 72.5%7
TBRPI 69-27 28-20 34-14 38-10 25-11 194-82 70.3%6
Comp 68-26-2 28-20 37-11 34-13-1 24-12 191-82-3 70.0%6
WRPI 71-25 26-22 37-11 33-15 24-12 191-85 69.2%6
LMwl 69-27 28-20 33-15 37-11 23-13 190-86 68.8%4
EV 69-27 28-20 35-13 33-15 24-12 189-87 68.5%6
CapWL 66-30 28-20 34-14 34-14 25-11 187-89 67.8%7
WL 61-32-3 27-20-1 32-14-2 28-17-3 23-12-1171-95-10 64.3%4
Unan. 50- 9 17- 5 22- 4 23- 5 14- 5 126-28 81.2%

Team Brunnhilde's Linear Model (Points) again picked the most games correctly. WIAA RPI finished 5th, 14 games behind Team Brunnhilde LMPts. Team Brunnhilde RPI (TBRPI) which doesn't consider OOWP finished ahead of the WIAA RPI. The database is slightly different and the set of games in-scope differs. But the inclusion of OOWP does not seem to make WIAA RPI better. Considering that WIAA uses fake data to populate OOWP for out-of-state teams, maybe WIAA should just drop OOWP from their RPI formula. Thursday was the most successful day for rankers in general.

The most accurately ranked tournament was Boys 2B (87.0%). The least was Boys 1A (55.1%).

Unanimous picks for champion had one right: Lynden Boys 2A, and one wrong: Lynden Christian Boys 1A. No ranker picked champions for Boys 1A and 3A, and for Girls 2A and 4A. Max Preps and Captured WL led with seven champions ranked #1.

In solo picks (where the rankers were unanimous except for a single ranker), LMPts was 10-8, Evans was 1-1, LMwl was 3-6, TBRPI was 1-3, WL was 2-12. No other rankers had solo picks.

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