Exciting regional basketball

This year I mapped out six regional games featuring big school girls teams (my general interest).  Two in Bothell on Friday, and on Saturday two at Puyallup HS, and two at Rogers (Puyallup) HS.  Four games decided in the final seconds.  One twice (it went to overtime).  I can’t recall a cluster of games like that at a girls state tournament.  Three of the games were winner to Thursday/loser to Wednesday, so lacked the urgency of a loser out game but competition was still fierce.  The final of the four was the loser out between Wilson and Bethel.  The final quarter with end-to-end rushes, spectacular plays, lead changing back and forth as the team desperately tried to assure that trip to the Tacoma Dome.  Everything one hopes for in a state tournament game.  Thank you, Mercer Island, Bishop Blanchet, Gig Harbor, Kamiakin, Camas, Kentlake, Wilson, and Bethel.  A well spent weekend watching basketball.

Last year there were four games total out of 48 girls regional games that were decided by five points or less (or in overtime).  This year there were 16 in all.  A third of the games.  The average margin dropped from 16.8 to 12.9, nearly four points closer.

Ratings Comparison Update

With 96 of the 276 tournament games in the book, just over a third of the state tournament is complete.  Of those 96 games, using the WIAA RPI, 60 of 96 higher seeds won, 62.5%.  That is about the same as if one were picking winners based on win-loss percentage: 59 of 94 (two games had teams teams with the same w-l records), 62.8%.  With a better RPI that uses playoff games and available out-of-state win-loss records, RPI would have a 67.7% correct mark (65 of 96).  My TeamBrunnhilde points rating picked 73 of 96 games correctly for 76%.  There are still 180 games to go, but the WIAA RPI isn’t looking like God’s gift for seeding teams.

That is not to say the WIAA should just seed based on win-loss and forget the RPI rigmarole.  If seeding was based on won-loss there would be a lot of games scheduled against the Little Sisters of the Poor.  When one announces the basis for ranking, behavior is altered to optimize the ranking.  One can see that in how teams scheduled this year with RPI in mind compared to last year.  It is to say that one should be able to create an open ranking system (not a secret one that nobody knows what goes into it), that can more accurately assess better teams than the WIAA RPI did for 2016-2017.

MaxPreps Update

As soon as the WIAA not need accurate data from MaxPreps, MaxPreps is back to their old tricks.  Playoff game data is badly incomplete.  Look for the regional games and you’ll see many are missing from the schedule entirely.  So for all the effort expended in getting the WIAA RPI data accurate, no lasting reforms are forthcoming at MaxPreps.  It will be the same work next year just to get to the same spot.

2017 Ratings Comparison

Back by popular demand. Well, I wanted to do it anyway, here is the ranking comparison prior to the state tournaments. This year I’ve collected eight rankings:

WIAA RPI

TeamBrunnhilde RPI

Win-loss

Captured Win-Loss

TeamBrunnhilde Points rating

MaxPreps Rating

Evans Rating

Score Czar rating

The two RPI ratings differ in that TeamBrunnhilde RPI uses available out-of-state records and also utilizes playoff results. The latter three ratings use proprietary rating methods. Win-loss and Captured Win-loss are straightforward calculations one could compute by hand. TeamBrunnhilde Points uses a standard statistical technique.

There is consensus for Boys 3A (Nathan Hale), Girls 1A (Cashmere), and Boys 2B (Kittitas). The other classifications have varying degrees of disagreement between the ratings. While some ratings will have better results than others, all ratings will have notable successes and failures. Like last year, I expect that some ‘sure thing’ game picks (where all rankings agree) will be wrong. The failure rate last year was about 18% for these.

I note that this will be the final year for Score Czar doing high school sports. We’ll miss you. Good luck with your further rating endeavors.