The results are in! No I’m not talking Eastlake, O’Dea, or Washougal. It is the 2019 ranking comparison. Once again the Team Brunnhilde Linear Model Points rating was the champion. Going 40-8 on Thursday had me thinking I could hit 75%, which is a gold standard for picking tournament winners. Going into the twelve championship games a 9-3 record would suffice, but losing all three 7PM games scuttled that.
In summary, the final standings are: TeamBrunnhilde LM Points 205, MaxPreps 199, TeamBrunnhilde RPI 193, Composite at 190 (but a higher percentage due to unpicked games), WIAA RPI and LM won-loss tied at 191, Evans at 188, Captured WL at 187 and Won-Loss at 173 (with 7 unpicked games). Unanimous picks hit 81.2% correct.
The details are here.
WIAA RPI is the ranking of interest since that is how the tournaments are seeded. I don’t suggest using the TeamBrunnhilde LM Points or MaxPreps ratings. For different reasons neither is suitable for seeding the tournament. However the comparison with TeamBrunnhilde RPI is germane. TB RPI, albeit with a slightly different database (I think more accurate) and different set of games in-scope, does not use OOWP. WIAA RPI uses OOWP. WIAA RPI also puts in fake data for out-of-state teams for OOWP. Maybe OOWP should just be dropped. It doesn’t seem to make more accurate rankings.