Comparison of Ranks Prior to 2020 State Regional Round

This page shows the rankings from various sources of the state qualified teams prior to the regional round of the state tournaments.

WRPI is the official WIAA RPI used for seeding. TBRPI is an RPI calculated by me. Different from WRPI in that it doesn't use OOWP. There are also differences in what games are in scope and the games in the database (a few, not many). WL is just won-lost percentage. CapWL is captured wins and losses. LMpts is the teambrunnhilde.com points ranking: three time defending ranking champion. LMwl is similar to LMpts, except that the dependent variable for the linear model is 1 rather than the margin. So it just looks at wins and losses with the linear model rather than margin of the games. LMwl uses the same X matrix as LMpts. It is not an optimal technique for binary data, but yields a reasonable result. MP is the MaxPreps ranking taken from the MaxPreps site February 25. DP is a seeding based on district tournament placings. District champions seeded highest, with sorting based on the number of teams within the district(s) comprising the tournament. DP is an roughly similar to how the old WIAA draw worked, without the random veneer of drawing names from a hat that simulated fairness. The top eight correspond to the old WIAA #1 seeds (true #1 and whatever the other #1's were called). Inclusion in this comparison may remind you why you hated the old WIAA draw. Comp is a composite of the above ratings: an average of the other rankings for a team and then list those 1-16. All other rankings are the rank over the entire set of teams within a classification.

LMpts is based on margin. LMwl, RPI, WL, and CapWL are based on wins and losses. They are for the entire season. There is no "what have you done for me lately" component of the ranking. The MaxPreps rating uses wins and losses with greater weighting for playoff games. So there is some form of recent performance adjustment. It is unknown if scores (other than win/loss) affect the rating.

Rankings (except for the composite and district placement) are those for the team within the entire set of teams for a classification. They are not 1 to 16 for the 16 state qualifiers. This results in some holes in the rankings. These may be due to upsets at district tournaments, but more often reflect the uneven spread of good teams between the districts. It may also reflect district bracketing that pitted good teams against eachother.

Keen observers will note that the WRPI rank does not completely conform to the tournament seedings. WIAA alters seeds 13-16 to avoid loser out regional matchups between teams in the same league.

A note on King's boys. LMpts has them #1 and LMwl also has them ranked highly. King's lost all four games at a holiday tournament in Arizona, two to just mediocre teams. For the linear model rankings, games involving teams that only appear in one game in the dataset are excluded, so these Arizona games were not considered by the algorithm. This makes the LMpts and LMwl rankings for King's suspect.

For purposes of considering a #1 ranking unanimous, if a team won its district tournament, I consider DP to be a 1, ranking the district champions based arbitrarily on the size of the district. So there are five unanimous #1's: Woodinville (4A girls), Liberty (Spangle) (2B girls), Pomeroy (1B girls), Union (4A boys), and Odessa (1B boys). Last year there were two unanimous #1 picks. One did become champion, the other did not.

Last season LMpts was best, predicting under 75% of tournament games correctly. MaxPreps was second. Several rankings bunched between third and sixth, including WIAA RPI. The results for this year will be shown at the bottom of this page following the tournament.

Tables are sortable, just click on the column header to sort. The native sorting is by seed.

Girls 4A Ranks

SeedSchoolLMptsLMwlWRPITBRPIWLCapWLMPDPComp
1Woodinville 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1
2Beamer 16 5 2 2 2 2 2 1 3
3Central Valley 2 3 3 5 6 6 3 3 2Champion
4Chiawana 3 2 4 7 3 7 411 4
5Kentridge 1313 5 3 8 4 8 9 8
6Glacier Peak 510 6 6 5 5 6 6 6
7Union 6 9 7 4 9 3 5 5 5
8Rogers (Puyallup) 7 8 8 8 3 8 914 9
9Moses Lake 4 4 9 9 7 9 7 4 7
10Bellarmine Prep 8121010 91010 710
11Lake Stevens 10191212 912121011
12Issaquah 91814151815131312
13Kentwood 232515161314171213
14Camas 142316132617201514
15Sunnyside 251622211820241616
16Decatur 28302324171922 815

Girls 3A Ranks

SeedSchoolLMptsLMwlWRPITBRPIWLCapWLMPDPComp
1Eastside Catholic 1 4 1 1 1 1 1 2 1
2Bethel 6 5 2 3 2 3 4 7 4
3Arlington 3 3 3 2 3 2 3 3 2
4Mount Spokane 2 1 4 4 5 4 2 4 3
5Shorecrest 10 6 5 6 3 5 8 9 5
6Lake Washington 8 8 6 7 7 7 6 8 6
7Lincoln (Tacoma) 1610 7 5 7 6 9 1 7
8Kennewick 5 2 810 6 9 715 9
9Garfield 4 9 9 811 8 5 6 8Champion
10Seattle Prep 71310 91410101310
11Meadowdale 151212121212121211
12Capital 24191314 913201615
13Wilson 181414131214131313
14Hudson's Bay 19151515101514 512
15Juanita 221819222021191116
16Prairie 91621212220181014

Girls 2A Ranks

SeedSchoolLMptsLMwlWRPITBRPIWLCapWLMPDPComp
1Lynden 1 5 1 1 2 1 1 3 1Champion
2Ellensburg 6 3 2 2 1 3 3 2 2
3Tumwater 4 7 3 5 3 4 213 3
4White River 1312 4 3 4 21112 6
5Burlington-Edison 7 9 6 8 8 5 6 8 4
6Port Angeles 811 7 7 8 712 1 5
7W.F. West 5 8 8 613 8 7 8 7
8West Valley (Spokane) 3 1 9 910 9 416 8
9Black Hills 121010101110 8 310
10Fife 22211213 61216 611
11Clarkston 2 413141316 5 5 9
12Renton 26311616 514221512
13East Valley (Yakima) 181317181817171113
14Franklin Pierce 363318171919281015
15Liberty (Issaquah) 141619191618131314
16North Kitsap 24342220302218 716

Girls 1A Ranks

SeedSchoolLMptsLMwlWRPITBRPIWLCapWLMPDPComp
1Cashmere 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 6 1
2Lynden Christian 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 1 2Champion
3Warden 3 5 3 5 3 3 4 8 5
4Freeman 5 3 4 4 4 4 3 5 3
5La Salle 4 4 5 3 5 5 5 2 4
6King's 8 8 6 614 6 614 8
7Annie Wright 912 7 7 9 710 4 6
8Nooksack Valley 1011 9 81010 712 9
9Zillah 6 710 9 8 9 911 7
10Okanogan 121011121212121612
11Seattle Academy 31281211 71122 713
12Elma 13141313121313 310
13Deer Park 11 614141114111511
14Montesano 141515151716141014
15Meridan 18181717281715 915
16Cascade Christian (Puyallup) 233027253127241316

Girls 2B Ranks

SeedSchoolLMptsLMwlWRPITBRPIWLCapWLMPDPComp
1Liberty (Spangle) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1Champion
2La Conner 2 7 2 2 2 2 2 5 2
3Wahkiakum 6 9 3 3 8 3 5 1 3
4Toledo 710 4 4 3 4 4 7 4
5Ilwaco 919 5 6 4 51213 8
6Adna 1414 6 5 9 6 910 9
7Columbia (Burbank) 3 5 7 8 4 7 7 9 5
8Tri-Cities Prep 10 6 8 712 8 6 3 6
9St. George's 8 2 9 910 9 312 7
10Mossyrock 16171011101110 610
11Waterville-Mansfield 12201314 71318 412
12Colfax 11 41615201611 811
13Brewster 252322221720221113
14Northwest Christian (Colbert) 151125272426161614
15Lake Roosevelt 242524232724251515
16Orcas Island 343226252525271416

Girls 1B Ranks

SeedSchoolLMptsLMwlWRPITBRPIWLCapWLMPDPComp
1Pomeroy 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 5 1
2Inchelium 2 4 2 2 2 2 3 2 2Champion
3Oakesdale 3 2 3 4 9 5 216 4
4Neah Bay 412 4 3 4 3 5 1 3
5Mount Vernon Christian 1213 5 6 3 4 7 7 6
6Yakama Tribal 10 6 7 7 6 7 6 6 5
7Curlew 7 7 811 5 9 813 8
8Wellpinit 6 9 9 9 9 810 9 7
9Clallam Bay 20201010 61114 8 9
10Muckleshoot 25211212 810161111
11Lummi Nation 212216151717171212
12Moses Lake Christian 19171713121418 410
13Taholah 28311920151921 313
14Columbia Adventist 312922162721201514
15Naselle 223024232323251015
16Riverside Christian 262327262626291416

Boys 4A Ranks

SeedSchoolLMptsLMwlWRPITBRPIWLCapWLMPDPComp
1Union 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
2Glacier Peak 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2
3Mount Si 3 3 3 3 8 3 310 4Champion
4Central Valley 4 4 4 5 3 4 4 3 3
5Federal Way 8 9 5 4 6 5 6 9 5
6West Valley (Yakima) 914 7 9 4 810 4 6
7Auburn 1010 8 6 7 6 912 8
8Gonzaga Prep 5 7 9 710 9 511 7
9Sumner 17 81010101011 710
10Olympia 7 61112 911 814 9
11Skyview 141212111812131512
12Battle Ground 15111413251612 511
13Inglemoor 20181716161514 613
14Jackson 272020202221191314
15Eastmont 282521211620231616
16Kentwood 26232423222325 815

Boys 3A Ranks

SeedSchoolLMptsLMwlWRPITBRPIWLCapWLMPDPComp
1Eastside Catholic 2 1 1 1 3 1 1 2 1
2Wilson 6 4 2 2 1 2 2 1 2
3Marysville-Pilchuck 7 5 3 3 1 3 5 3 3
4Garfield 1 2 4 4 6 4 3 8 4Champion
5Evergreen (Vancouver) 10 7 5 7 4 6 8 5 7
6Kamiakin 5 6 6 5 5 7 9 4 6
7O'Dea 4 3 7 6 8 5 4 6 5
8Mount Spokane 310 8 9 7 8 715 8
9Seattle Prep 9 9101011 9 613 9
10Mount Tahoma 20141111131111 710
11Shorecrest 17121212 91213 911
12Lincoln (Tacoma) 121615151715141012
13Rainier Beach 111116162217121113
14Central Kitsap 383220201619301615
15Marysville-Getchell 192017171716151214
16Spanaway Lake 252624212523211316

Boys 2A Ranks

SeedSchoolLMptsLMwlWRPITBRPIWLCapWLMPDPComp
1Lynden 1 1 1 1 3 1 1 3 1
2Toppenish 12 8 2 2 1 3 3 2 2
3North Kitsap 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 6 3Champion
4Lindbergh 8 6 5 5 2 5 6 1 4
5White River 1713 7 8 8 714 7 8
6Tumwater 1312 812 6 8 9 3 7
7Clarkston 9 7 9 6 7 6 7 5 5
8Mountlake Terrace 4 310 910 9 513 6
9Black Hills 1114111010111213 9
10Prosser 151913131213 81611
11Selah 162014141714131112
12Lakewood 7 91515201510 810
13Franklin Pierce 211720201519191213
14Renton 191821211920201514
15Clover Park 292323232423341015
16Woodland 41292727322827 816

Boys 1A Ranks

SeedSchoolLMptsLMwlWRPITBRPIWLCapWLMPDPComp
1Seattle Academy 3 2 1 1 1 1 2 1 1
2Cashmere 7 3 2 2 4 3 1 6 3
3Zillah 2 6 3 3 1 2 3 2 2
4River View 2217 4 6 3 415 8 7
5Bellevue Christian 15 8 5 4 9 5 8 4 5
6Lynden Christian 4 1 6 5 5 6 412 4
7King's Way Christian 5 5 7 7 5 7 615 6
8Omak 1613 8 9 7 9 513 9
9La Salle 616 910 7 8121110
10La Center 9 910 8101010 3 9
11Deer Park 101111111212 7 512
12Meridian 8 71312171111 913
13Vashon Island 191414161013171314
14King's 1 417132315 9 711Champion
15Bear Creek 292524192325261616
16Seton Catholic 132020272620191015

Boys 2B Ranks

SeedSchoolLMptsLMwlWRPITBRPIWLCapWLMPDPComp
1Liberty (Spangle) 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1
2St. George's 4 2 2 2 4 3 2 8 2
3Toutle Lake 6 4 3 3 4 4 5 6 5
4Brewster 1 5 4 4 2 5 3 4 3Champion
5Life Christian 5 3 5 5 3 2 4 1 4
6Lake Roosevelt 212 7 6 4 6 6 9 6
7Onalaska 10 7 912 810 8 7 7
8White Swan 131610 9 9 9 911 9
9Colfax 7 811101111 712 8
10Willapa Valley 16 912111112131310
11Wahkiakum 171415162015141011
12Kettle Falls 141316151817101612
13Darrington 313019221020291414
14Kittitas-Thorp 25232017211920 313
15Friday Harbor 41312828222734 515
16Oroville 293533333030261516

Boys 1B Ranks

SeedSchoolLMptsLMwlWRPITBRPIWLCapWLMPDPComp
1Odessa 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1Champion
2Yakama Tribal 3 2 2 4 3 4 2 6 3
3Lummi Nation 2 3 3 2 4 2 3 1 2
4Riverside Christian 8 5 4 3 2 3 4 5 4
5Naselle 4 4 5 5 9 5 611 5
6Muckleshoot 9 7 6 611 7 7 7 7
7Rainier Christian 14 9 7 7 8 610 8 8
8Oakesdale 7 6 8 8 6 8 5 4 6
9Taholah 1514 911 5 913 3 9
10Almira Coulee Hartline 51011101714 81411
11Garfield-Palouse 6 813 91311 91510
12Tacoma Bapist 161614131413151313
13Selkirk 121315161716111012
14Chief Kitsap 29201718121721 914
15Sunnyside Christian 171518172318161615
16Mount Vernon Christian 182124252825221216

Final Results

RankerRegionalsWednesdayThursdayFridaySaturdayTotal# Champs
LMpts 80-16 34-14 39- 9 32-16 27- 9 212-64 76.8%6
LMwl 75-21 34-14 37-11 28-20 21-15 195-81 70.7%2
MP 73-23 32-16 39- 9 24-24 22-14 190-85 68.8%3
Comp 70-26 32-16 36-12 25-23 23-13 186-90 67.4%3
WRPI 69-27 30-18 36-12 25-23 22-14 182-94 65.9%3
CapWL 66-30 33-15 36-12 23-25 22-14 180-96 65.2%4
TBRPI 66-30 32-16 36-12 23-25 20-16 177-99 64.1%3
WL 56-39-1 28-17-3 28-18-2 26-20-2 19-15-2 157-109-10 59.0%2
DP 59-36-1 25-22-1 26-22 24-24 19-17 153-121-2 55.8%1

LMpts was the most accurate ranking for all four years of the RPI era. LMpts topped 75%, the only ranking method to score that high since the current tournament formats were adopted in 2017. However, overall accuracy was lower than last year. In 2019 69.5% of game picks were correct, for 2020 that dropped to 66.0%. Throwing out the dubious DP ranking, overall accuracy was 67.3%. WRPI, used to seed the tournament, had the worst record since 2017 (when rankings were frozen at the end of the regular season) and had nine more losses than in 2019.

There were 102 unanimous game picks. Rankers were 83-19 81.4% on those games.

In solo picks (where the rankings were unanimous except for a single ranking), LMpts was 16-8, LMwl was 5-6, TBRPI was 1-2, DP was 6-32, and WL was 0-7. Solo picks for most rankings are a source of losses. For the last four years, LMpts is a combined 40-27, each year winning more games than lost.

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