Comparison of Ranks Prior to 2022 State Regional Round

This page shows the rankings from various sources of the state qualified teams prior to the regional round of the state tournaments.

Seed is the tournament seedings as determined by the WIAA seeding committee. AP poll is the rankings from the final AP media poll of February 9. The AP poll and seeding do not include all teams in the classification. The other rankings are made for all teams in the classification. Thus the ranking numbers are not constrained on a 1-16 scale. Comp is a composite of the following unconstrained rankings, then mapped onto a 1-16 scale. WRPI is the official WIAA RPI no longer used for seeding. TBRPI is an RPI calculated by me. Different from WRPI in that it doesn't use OOWP. There are also differences in what games are in scope and the games in the database (a few, not many). WL is just won-lost percentage. CapWL is captured wins and losses. LMpts is the teambrunnhilde.com points ranking: the undefeated defending ranking champion. LMwl is similar to LMpts, except that the dependent variable for the linear model is 1 rather than the margin. So it just looks at wins and losses with the linear model rather than margin of the games. LMwl uses the same X matrix as LMpts. It is not an optimal technique for binary data, but yields a reasonable result. Colley ranking is new this year and like the LM rankings uses mathematics, not merely arithmetic. So most fans will be baffled by it as they are by the LM ratings. MP is the MaxPreps ranking taken from the MaxPreps site February 21. MaxPreps requires a minimum of 6 games for ranking, which every team has played. But MaxPreps doesn't have all the games, so North Kitsap girls and Lakewood boys miss the cut. MaxPreps ratings may be compromised by lack of games elswhere as well.

LMpts is based on margin. LMwl, RPI, Colley, WL, and CapWL are based on wins and losses. They are for the entire season. There is no "what have you done for me lately" component of the ranking. The MaxPreps rating uses wins and losses with greater weighting for playoff games. So there is some form of recent performance adjustment. It is unknown if scores (other than win/loss) affect the rating.

Rankings, except for the composite, are those for the team within the entire set of teams for a classification. They are not 1 to 16 for the 16 state qualifiers. This results in some holes in the rankings. These may be due to upsets at district tournaments, but more often reflect the uneven spread of good teams between the districts. It may also reflect district tournament results that eliminated teams unexpectedly.

There are two unanimous #1's: Mount Si (4A boys), and Garfield (3A boys).

Last tournament LMpts was best, predicting over 75% of tournament games correctly. LMwl was second. WIAA RPI had 30 fewer games right than LMpts. I hope the seeding committee does better. A well-seeded tournament is a good thing. The results for this year will be shown at the bottom of this page following the tournament.

This year's 3A tournaments have 20 teams, which results in 8 more tournament games, for a total of 284 up from 276. How's that for your state tournament experience? A weekday road game that looks a lot like an early December non-league game. The higher ticket price and the incessant drone of the PA announcer hawking Jimmy John's sandwiches the main differences.

Tables are sortable, just click on the column header to sort. The native sorting is by seed.

Girls 4A Ranks

Girls 3A Ranks

Girls 2A Ranks

Girls 1A Ranks

Girls 2B Ranks

Girls 1B Ranks

Boys 4A Ranks

Boys 3A Ranks

Boys 2A Ranks

Boys 1A Ranks

Boys 2B Ranks

Boys 1B Ranks

Final Results

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