Rankings are a means of summarizing a large amount of data. By the end of the season there will be over 4000 games for each gender for high schools in Washington state. It would be difficult for even the most devoted fan to see more than a hundred games.
I present several data-driven ranking methods. One is based based on a statistical linear model of points scored in games, another on RPI. Both have strengths and weaknesses. Consultation of various rankings and WATCHING GAMES is recommended to make ones own determination of which teams are best. I also show Colley ratings and the statistical linear model using just win-loss data (collapsing points to a 1-0 score).
How did various rankings do in predicting tournament games? Here is a comparison of several rankings with the precent of game outcomes predicted correctly using team rankings just prior to the state tournament. Prediction is based on which team is ranked higher.
Beginning in 2017, the WIAA began to seed state tournament teams. From 2017-2020 seeding was based on a WIAA calculated RPI. RPI isn't very good and the WIAA RPI was not even a good RPI, especially in 2017. The RPI column uses the WIAA RPI for 2017-2024. For 2015-2016 RPI is my calculated RPI. There were no state tournaments in 2021. For 2022-2024 WIAA seeding was done by committee with better results. The ranking method which performed best is the teambrunnhilde points rating. Colley was only added recently. The middling results for Colley are consistent with results obtained using retrospective comparisons (not shown here). AP is using the rankings from the last AP media poll. Getting 75% of the games right is a good score. Try it yourself at home.
|
WIAA Seed |
TB Pts |
RPI |
Colley |
MaxPreps |
AP |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2024 |
72.2 |
72.6 |
65.6 |
68.8 |
69.1 |
70.5 |
2023 |
76.7 |
78.8 |
68.4 |
74.3 |
73.3 |
72.3 |
2022 |
75.3 |
75.7 |
64.4 |
68.3 |
70.5 |
72.3 |
2021 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
2020 |
65.9 |
76.8 |
65.9 |
|
68.8 |
|
2019 |
69.2 |
74.3 |
69.2 |
|
72.5 |
|
2018 |
67.4 |
74.6 |
67.4 |
|
70.7 |
|
2017 |
63.0 |
72.1 |
63.0 |
|
68.5 |
|
2016 |
|
77.2 |
72.8 |
|
71.4 |
|
2015 |
|
79.8 |
71.9 |
|
|
|
Whole year rankings
2020-2021 Girls' Rankings |
2020-2021 Boys' Rankings |
|
Note that rankings are subject to change as more games are
added. For recent years data is fairly complete.
For 2020-2021 season (entirely played in 2021), calculating rankings is problematical. The teams split into several subsets with no games against teams in other subsets. While it is possible to calculate some of the ratings in such a situation, it is not possible to make comparisons between ratings from the various subsets. It would be similar to throwing in the NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA, and St. Alphonso's sixth-grade intramural badminton league, all into one calculation. For girls there were ten subsets, and for boys there were seven. For both boys and girls, one of the subsets had most of the teams: 287 for girls, and 302 for boys. Restricting calculations to those sets makes a valid presentation for those teams.